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Finding the connection: Readership, expenditure and research outcomes
—Chrysanne Lowe, Vice President, Global Customer Marketing, Elsevier, San Diego, CA, USA
Ian Rowlands
Chrysanne Lowe: Though you're only halfway through the study covered in your new report, already you've released some eye-catching results. Please, can you share any with us?
Ian Rowlands: One of the first things we noticed was a strong correlation between library spending on e-journals and usage. This correlation is not as obvious as it might first appear. Worldwide, approximately US $8 billion is spent annually on scholarly journals. The strong correlation between expenditure and usage demonstrated in our study seems to suggest that e-journals are not simply being subscribed to for the sake of completeness of the library.
And you found a correlation between usage and research output?
Yes. It seems that universities with higher download figures also award more PhDs and publish more papers, even when we take the size of the institution into account. Whether this is merely coincidental remains to be seen.
Also, looking at your initial analysis of the data, you see a significant pattern in the relationship between the number of downloads and the value of research grants awarded to universities.
Yes. This apparent correlation, which is also scale-independent, needs further investigation, but is certainly intriguing.
How did you come to investigate the connections between readership, expenditure and research outcomes?
I'll tell you a story. We speak often to a UK university librarian who goes to her provost each year asking, "Can I have 5-10% more?" This year, her provost said no. This year, the provost decided to put the money into building a car park because it has a much more immediate return. The point being is that we need more evidence to make the case as to why the provost should sign those checks for the library.
So far, are the results of your investigation meeting your expectations?
When we initiated this study, we simply didn't know what questions to ask, because the whole field of electronic journals (e-journals) has been changing so quickly, both in terms of technological advances and growth. Digital libraries have only existed for 15 years, at the most, and represent the first major change in the library environment since the invention of the printing press. In historical terms, we're only just getting used to this new environment.
What data did you have to work with?
The rise of electronic publishing and electronic access to resources means it's now possible to collect vast amounts of information about how universities, departments and individuals use these resources. Various public agencies collect statistics on library investment in the UK, such as how much each university spends on resources like e-journal subscriptions and, more recently, fulltext downloads, and how these resources are used. We were also able to collect data on PhD awards, research grants and papers published at various UK universities and in different subjects. Finally we were granted access to ScienceDirect and Oxford Journals logs at UK universities, and we performed deep-log analyses to ascertain how people were accessing information, from where, for how long and so on.
So this is data-driven research?
Yes. The preliminary report is based on data collected from 112 UK universities between September 2006 and August 2007. It was basically a quantitative exercise. We had no preconceptions, but simply gathered data and looked at whether any patterns emerged.
What other observations have you made?
What struck us most was that people tend to initiate searches outside ScienceDirect, via gateways like Google (Scholar) or PubMed. We also discovered a statistical relationship between session length and (Hirsch index) research rating. It seems that the higher-rated researchers spend less time obtaining information. They tend to use third-party services and are much more targeted than some of their colleagues. In addition, researchers of the same subject at different universities displayed similar behavior patterns during research sessions, but noticeable differences in behavior patterns were apparent between researchers of different subjects.
"This year the provost decided to put the money into building a car park because it has a much more immediate return."
So you have these preliminary results. What comes next?
During the second stage, we'll take a much closer look at these apparent relationships and patterns, and we'll also extend the time frame of the study to cover the previous 4 or 5 years. We already know that there is a statistical correlation between usage, expenditure and research outcomes, but we don't know whether this is simply a coincidence. In addition, if we do prove these relationships are real, we will also try to answer the question "In what direction are they headed?" For example, do successful researchers create demand for library services, or does library investment lead to success?
What are some of the outcomes you would like to see from this study?
In general, I feel publishers could make a stronger case for the added value they provide, for example, in performing peer reviews. They should be more transparent about the processes and costs involved in publishing scientific journals, where demand is more finite and less elastic than in other forms of publishing. In fact, I'd say that the entire scientific community (scholars, publishers and librarians) could improve its promotion of the added value it provides.
Many publishers and librarians may take up your recommendation!
Our preliminary study provides good
ammunition for this, and will be of
particular interest to scholarly publishers
and librarians, since it offers fresh
insights into the behavior of their users,
as well as the relevance and usability of
journals and services. During the period
covered by the preliminary report, 102
million articles were downloaded at the
UK universities surveyed, which proves
the material is being used. The second
stage of the study should provide more
compelling evidence upon which to
base more far-reaching conclusions. 
i.rowlands@ucl.ac.uk
www.rin.ac.uk/use-ejournals
www.ucl.ac.uk/infostudies/ian-rowlands
www.publishing.ucl.ac.uk
Interview with Dr. Ian Rowlands by Gary Rudland, February 17, 2009, for Editors' Update, Volume 26 (www.elsevier.com/editors/issue26a ), and interview with Dr. Rowlands by Chrysanne Lowe, on March 27, 2009.
